000 AXNT20 KNHC 170002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 34W, moving westward about 15 knots. Massive dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is limiting the convection to the ITCZ/monsoon trough region where scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 28W and 38W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 58W, moving westward about 15 knots. Scattered showers are from 10N to 18N between 55W and 63W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 70W, moving westward about 15 knots. Moderate to strong wind shear over the central Caribbean is limiting convection to the island of Hispaniola where scattered to isolated showers are noted. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 78W, moving westward about 15 knots. Heavy showers are noted along central and eastern Cuba and Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 09N20W to 08N33W 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W to 08N50W. Aside from the convection asociated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 13W and 19W, and from 05N to 10N between 40W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered showers across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico while a surface trough crossing the state of Louisiana support similar shower activity across portions of the north-central Gulf offshore waters. Weak pressure gradient in the region is providing light to gentle variable winds across the basin, except in the Bay of Campeche where moderate to locally fresh NE winds are being supported by a surface trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula. Seas range between 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean this evening, one is in the central basin and the second one over the western basin. None of these waves are generating significant convection over the region, except for inland Cuba and Hispaniola. A third wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles and is generating scattered showers mainly across the Windward Islands and portions of the SE Caribbean. A strong Azores high continues to extend a ridge to the northern Caribbean, which is maintaining mainly fresh winds in the central and eastern basin, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these portions of the basin range between 5-6 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. The aerial extent of the trades will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of the area strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region during the next several days. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon. $$ Ramos