000 AXNT20 KNHC 161000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 19N southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 25W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 51W and 59W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from Puerto Rico to western Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located near the coast of Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from just E of Jamaica to eastern Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti and northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal across 11N22W to 09N29W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and south of the trough from 06N to 10N between the central African coast and 25W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N36W to 07N42W, then northwestward to 11N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A upper-level trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection from near New Orleans to the Florida Big Bend. Along the Florida coast, convection is being enhanced by a weak surface trough stretching southward just offshore the Peninsula. Earlier convection in the eastern Bay of Campeche has diminished and is not confined inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh NE winds are occurring W of the Yucatan Peninsula, otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to to 5 ft in the Bay of Campeche, with 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf into early next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the NW and west- central waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western Gulf for the latter half of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas persist in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present for the northwestern basin and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coastline. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in NE swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of the area strengthens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the northwest Bahamas along with its induced surface trough extending S to Cuba continue to produce scattered moderate convection from the northern shore of Cuba northward across the Bahamas to offshore of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An elongated 1025 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist from 10N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles; and also from the Greater Antilles to 27N between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen near the Canary Islands, north of 13N between the northwest African coast and 35W. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge dominating weather through the basin will drift E this weekend. This will allow trades to expand north, with pulses of strong winds impacting areas N of Hispaniola each night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate wind will prevail. $$ Konarik