000 AXNT20 KNHC 152243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N between 21W and 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-12N between 43W-53W. An Atlantic tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles along 61W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is present currently with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, extending from Haiti to western Venezuela and Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is present currently with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between the central African coast and 22W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N83W to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves noted above, there is no significant deep convection noted. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging associated with the subtropical Atlantic high is producing fair weather in the central Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the N Gulf. Winds in the western Gulf are from the SE and gentle to moderate, with 2-4 ft seas. Elsewhere, easterly winds dominate and are gentle with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region this weekend into early next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the NW and west-central waters. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds to the west of the Peninsula during this period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western Gulf toward the end of the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NE to ENE tradewind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds persist in the south-central Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. In the north-central Caribbean, trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the E Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the W Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in NE swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. The aerial extent of the trades will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of the area strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 2100 UTC a surface trough is analyzed between Florida and the Bahamas from 27N78W to 24N80W. This surface trough is located under a broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over the northwest Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection associated with these features is impacting the central Bahamas from 24N-29N between 72W-78W. North of 20N and west of 40W, gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the area, with seas of 4-7 ft. South of 20N, west of 40W, moderate to fresh E winds prevail, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of 40W, with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge that extends across the forecast region toward Florida will slowly shift NE through the weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola each night through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most of the western part of area, including the Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper-level low creates additional instability. $$ Landsea