000 AXNT20 KNHC 151003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is passing through the Cabo Verde Islands near 25W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 21W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles along 59W, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the Windward Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Haiti to the Venezuela-Colombia border. Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and extends to 11N25W to 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the central African coast and 20W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N32W to 05N47W. Convection previously associated with the ITCZ has diminished. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of weak surface troughs are impacting the NE Gulf. One stretches from the western Florida Panhandle to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. The other is along the west coast of the Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from near New Orleans to the Florida Big Bend. Over the western Bay of Campeche, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted due to a mid-level trough. Winds across most of the Gulf are gentle, with moderate winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered in the northern Gulf will dominate through the weekend, creating gentle winds across much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will create nightly pulses of fresh NE winds to the west of the Peninsula during this period. Southerly winds will increase to moderate speeds over the far western Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection across the basin. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia and northwestern Venezuela; and at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle trades and 3 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and low pressure to the south will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean into the start of next week, with some strong winds also in Atlantic waters Fri night and Sat. Large NE to E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones through Sat night, then subside Sun into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over the northwest Bahamas is generating scattered moderate convection from the central Bahamas northwestward to the coast of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. A 1017 surface ridge axis that extends along 31N across much of the Atlantic. This is creating for areas N of 25N, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. South of this, a broad area of fresh NE to E trades with seas of 6 to 8 ft extend southward to the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure that extends from E of Bermuda to offshore Florida will slowly shift NE through the weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola each night through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most of the western part of area, including the Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper- level low creates additional instability. $$ Konarik