000 AXNT20 KNHC 150554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 06N to 10N between 20W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 16N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 41W and 52W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 57W from 22N southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Trinidad and Tobago, and south of Barbados. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from eastern Hispaniola at 19N southward into western Venezuela, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over west-central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Gambia and Senegal across 11N25W to 08N31W. Scattered showers are evident south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the central African coast and 20W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N31W to 05N41W, then from 05N47W to near the French Guiana/Brazil border. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 140 nm north, and 60 nm south of this feature. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast of Costa Rica, Panama and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs west-southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to southeast of New Orleans. Another one is over northern Florida. These features are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf from near New Orleans eastward to the Florida Big Band area. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are found in this area. Over the western Bay of Campeche, a mid-level trough is producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the entire Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging associated with a modest 1019 mb high over the east-central Gulf supports light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, modest high pressure will persist into the weekend, creating gentle winds across much of the Gulf. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will create nightly pulses of fresh NE winds to the west of the peninsula during this period. Southerly winds will increase to moderate over the far western Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for weather across the basin. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia and northwestern Venezuela; and at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle trades and 3 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight before diminishing. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and low pressure to the south will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend, with some strong winds also in the Atlantic waters Fri night and Sat. Large NE to E swell will impact the waters near the Virgin, Leeward and Windward Islands through Sat night, then subside Sun into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over the Great Bahama Bank is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northwestward to the coast of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather across the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1028 mb high pressure over the north-central Atlantic is sustaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N between 40W and 67W, and farther west north of 27N between 67W and the northern Florida coast. To the south, NE to ENE moderate to fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident from 10N to 26N between 30W and 67W/Lesser Antilles. Farther west, mainly moderate ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 20N to 27N between 30W and the central/southern Florida coast, including the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 30W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will shift north into the weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of strong winds will commence nightly offshore from Hispaniola starting Fri night. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the Bahamas and near the Florida coast through the weekend, as the TUTT creates additional instability. Winds and seas may be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. $$ Chan