000 AXNT20 KNHC 142235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and E of 22W. Convective activity with the tropical wave is likely being enhanced by the Monsoon Trough. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 09N to 22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted within 90 nm of either side of the southern portion of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan Air Layer and a mid-level inversion are inhibiting convection with this tropical wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal near 12N17W to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 09N31W to 07N40W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves Section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is in the N Gulf W of 92W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf waters E of 86W enhanced by an upper level low centered over northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the gulf waters with seas of 2-4 ft. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure ridge will gradually weaken as it lifts northward to the southeastern U.S. by the upcoming weekend. This will allow for mainly gentle winds over the Gulf into early next week. Fresh winds will pulse again Fri evening off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Southerly winds will increase to moderate speeds over the far western Gulf early next week. Otherwise, a pair of upper-level lows over the south- central Gulf and over the Bahamas will enhance showers and thunderstorms through Fri across portions of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. No significant convection is noted over the Caribbean at this time, as areas of Saharan dust propagate westward through the basin. In the south-central Caribbean, the latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades. Seas are 6-7 ft in the central Caribbean, peaking at 8-9 ft within the area of strongest winds from 11N to 13N between 76W and 78W. In the E and W Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight before diminishing. The gradient across the basin will decrease, leading to mainly fresh trades across the south-central Caribbean Fri through Sat. The gradient will tighten again on Sun causing these winds to increase to fresh to strong Sun through Mon night while expanding in coverage over the central Caribbean. Large NE to E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones through Sat night, then subside Sun into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The subtropical Atlantic ridge centered north of the area remains in force across the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle anticyclonic winds are N of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades S of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, except locally 8 ft just NE of the Leeward Islands. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) continues to be very noticeable on satellite imagery, with the large upper level cyclonic circulation encompassing the Bahamas, W Cuba, and Florida. Scattered showers are noted on the eastern half of the TUTT. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will gradually shift northward during the next couple days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from tonight through the weekend, pulsing to strong just north of Hispaniola during the evening hours. Large E swell will impact the waters south of 22N and east of the Bahamas from tonight through Sat before diminishing Sun into Mon. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most of the western part of area, including the Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper-level low creates additional instability. Winds and seas may be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. $$ ERA