000 AXNT20 KNHC 140605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between 37W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between 44W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, including in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 80W westward, and from Honduras northward from 85W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SE Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N23W, and 07N31W. The ITCZ continues from 07N31W, to 06N38W and 06N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 25W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from 38W eastward, and within 60 nm to the north of the rest of the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ between 25W and 38W. Scattered moderate to strong is along the coast of French Guiana from 04N to 05N between 51W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the rest of the ITCZ southward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 120 nm to the north of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the upper level cyclonic circulation center and the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A surface ridge extends from the Bahamas, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. The wind flow is gentle to moderate. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in most areas. An exception is the range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the south central Gulf and in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure that is building in the Gulf of Mexico will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, including in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 80W westward, and from Honduras northward from 85W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from 12N northward between 65W and Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within a 390 nm radius of the upper level cyclonic circulation center, which is along 75W between the Bahamas and SE Cuba. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in Florida. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are impacting the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 11N to 16N between 73W and 81W. The trade winds are moderate, and the sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the E and SW Caribbean Sea. The trade winds are moderate, and the sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet, in the NW Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Azores high pressure area the comparatively lower surface pressure that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, is producing strong easterly winds and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. The high will weaken Thu, allowing for the trade winds to diminish to fresh to strong through Sat, followed by a resumption of strong to near gale conditions on Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong E to SE winds, that are in the Gulf of Honduras, will continue through Thu night, before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones on Thu night, continuing through Sun, then diminishing again on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge passes through 31N50W to 27N70W, across the Bahamas, and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are south of 20N. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 65W westward. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from 12N northward between 65W and Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within a 390 nm radius of the upper level cyclonic circulation center, which is along 75W between the Bahamas and SE Cuba. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in Florida. A surface ridge, extending from 30N55W to 29N70W and to central Florida, gradually will shift northward during the next couple days. The E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh to strong from tonight through the weekend, as the pressure gradient increases. Large E swell will impact the waters south of 22N from Thu night through Sat, before diminishing again on Sun. $$ MT/JA