000 AXNT20 KNHC 131054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 02N to 19N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 12N. A surface trough extends from 11N39W to 07N43W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the trough from 06N to 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 20N to inland Suriname. No significant deep convection is noted with this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 19N to across northern Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N81W and westward to inland northern Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and within 60 nm south of the trough between 78W-80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough west of the tropical wave to 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to 08N33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 16W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-33W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula, and for a few hundred miles to the north of the Peninsula. An-upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula northwestward to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A surface trough extends from the Florida west- southwestward along the northern Gulf coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 29N between 87W-90W. A surface ridge extends westward from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. Mainly gentle winds are over the area. The wave heights range from 1-2 ft in the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida to 3-4 feet in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Wave heights are 3 ft or less in the remainder of the area. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the N Gulf of Mexico are associated with the aforementioned surface trough that extends from the Florida panhandle west- southwestward along the northern Gulf coast. The trough is forecast to drift northward during the next few days and significant development is unlikely due to the trough being near land. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of days. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the area will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave along 82W, scattered moderate convection is seen along the north coast of Honduras extending north to 18N. Isolated showers are possible over the eastern part of the sea east of about 69W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean north of 12N between 60W-80W. High-level clouds cover the area that is from 25N southward between 60W and 70W on the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The pressure gradient between the Azores high pressure area the comparatively lower surface pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing strong to near gale trade winds and wave heights that range from 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and wave heights of 2-4 ft in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the trade winds to diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue through early Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A high pressure ridge extends from 31N50W to 27N70W, across the Bahamas, and to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds are moderate to the north of the ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ridge as noted in overnight ASCAT data passes. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh south of 20N. The winds are moderate to fresh in the central Atlantic Ocean. N to NE winds are moderate in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Wave heights in the range of 7-9 ft are mixed with other wave heights that range from 4-6 ft from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. The wave heights range from 7-8 ft south of the Cabo Verde Islands and east of 30W. The wave heights range from 4-6 ft north of 20N and between 30W-50W, from 5-7 ft south of 20N and west of 30W, and 3-5 feet over the remainder of the area. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High- level clouds are noted south of 25N between 60W-70W. They are on the eastern side of the upper-level cyclonic wind flow. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will gradually shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the trade winds south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Large E swell will impact the waters zones south of 22N from Thu night through Sat. $$ Aguirre