000 AXNT20 KNHC 130541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is closer to the ITCZ. A surface trough is along 11N39W 07N43W 05N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of the surface trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 08N to 11N between 52W and 55W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 11N80W, and westward beyond northern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from 08N to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W; and within 30 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 80W westward. Scattered moderate to strong is in the southern half of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W, to 08N32W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula, and for a few hundred miles to the north of the Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula and its surrounding waters. A surface ridge passes through 27N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas Islands, through the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida, to 4 feet in the NE Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are 3 feet or less in the remainder of the area. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, northwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave is along 97W/98W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High clouds are in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in the N Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. This system is forecast to drift northward during the next few days and significant development is unlikely due to the system's proximity to land. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of days. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 11N80W, and westward beyond northern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from 08N to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W; and within 30 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 80W westward. Scattered moderate to strong is in the southern half of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High level clouds cover the area that is from 25N southward between 60W and 70W, on the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Azores high pressure area the comparatively lower surface pressure that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, is producing strong easterly winds and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale E trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wed. By Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong east to southeast trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Rough NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue through early Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge passes through 31N50W to 27N70W, across the Bahamas, and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The winds are moderate to the north of the ridge. The winds are gentle to moderate to the south of the ridge. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh from 20N southward. The winds are moderate to fresh in the central Atlantic Ocean. N to NE winds are moderate in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet are mixed with other sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from the Cabo Verde Islands southward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N southward from 30W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High level clouds cover the area that is from 25N southward between 60W and 70W, on the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A high pressure ridge extending along 27N gradually will shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Rough E swell will impact the waters zones south of 22N from Thu night through Sat. $$ mt/ja