000 AXNT20 KNHC 101005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 08N-10N. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 19N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 54W-63W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis mainly S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 09N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side of the boundaries between 13W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting mainly light and gentle winds over the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less. A surface trough is analyzed W of the Yucatan peninsula with no significant convection at the moment. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the region through the forecast period supporting light to gentle return flow E of 90W and gentle to moderate winds W of 90W. An increase in wind speeds is expected through midweek as a low pressure develops over the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Weaker winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-9 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. An upper-level low now spinning over western Cuba continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of the island. This feature will continue to move westward over Cuba today enhancing the convective activity, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will also continue to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms over South Florida. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin, and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the basin through mid- week. These winds will also be enhanced by a pair of tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the High and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS indicates a large area of African dust covering the Atlantic waters E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail through Tue morning N of 29N as a frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This will slightly weaken the ridge tonight through Mon night. $$ ERA