000 AXNT20 KNHC 091747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 12N between 55W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from Santo Domingo indicated that the tropical wave passed overnight, and that mid-level moisture decreased in the lee of the tropical wave. No convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to 08N40W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of both the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, recent satellite images and surface observations indicate a weak surface trough has formed in the north-central Gulf, extending from 29N87W to 24N93W. A few showers and tstorms are possible along this boundary today. Weak ridging extending from the subtropical Atlantic High continues to maintain light to gentle return flow across the Gulf waters. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the gulf will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue through Wed night as a broad area of low pressure develops over Texas and extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure gradient in the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... The earlier Gale Warning for the Gulf of Venezuela has expired, with trade winds having diminished to fresh speeds. Seas are currently 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. In the central and southwest Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trades were detected by the latest scatterometer pass. Seas in this region are 6-9 ft, with highest seas in the strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 11N between 77W and 82W. In the eastern Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. This pattern across the Caribbean is the result of a strong subtropical high pressure centered north of the area creating a tight pressure gradient with lower pressure over the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the strong subtropical high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night as two tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Azores High currently dominates the discussion waters. Scatterometer data from this morning shows gentle return flow over the W Atlantic north of 20N and west of 60W. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate, except fresh within an area from 09N to 20N between 40W and 48W. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NE to E swell is from 12N to 23N between 35W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop tonight N of 29N and continue through Tue morning as a frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This will slightly weaken the ridge Sun night through Mon night. $$ Mahoney