000
AXNT20 KNHC 090516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela this
evening. Localized gale force winds are expected to pulse once 
again in the Gulf of Venezuela later this evening with seas less 
than 8 ft. Winds and seas will improve by Sat morning, and winds 
are expected to stay below gale force through the rest of the 
weekend. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast product
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W from 19N 
southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted 
with this feature at this time. 

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean and extends
from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are near the southern end of the wave axis
over Venezuela.

A tropical wave is reaching the Yucatan peninsula with axis along
87W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the wave axis over Honduras, El Salvador 
and western Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 09N28W. The ITCZ continues from 09N28W to 08N46W then W of a 
tropical wave near 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. A
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
W coast Africa affecting from Senegal to Guinea Bissau. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can also be found from 08N
to 10N between 30W and 40W, from 04N to 08N between 40W and 48W,
and within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 50W and 56W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge, with a 1017 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf, dominates
the basin supporting light and gentle winds, with the exception 
of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds just W of the Yucatan 
peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate southerly 
winds are seen near the coast of texas. Seas are generally in 1 
to 3 ft range. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf
and runs from 28N89W to 22N81W. Isolated showers are on either 
side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
noted over the W part of the Yucatan peninsula and the eastern Bay
of Campeche. 

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will shift 
south to along 28N through tonight, then shift south to the 
central Gulf Sun through next week. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight seas will prevail through this time. Pulsing fresh NE to E
winds are expected to the W of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, 
then mainly moderate winds will prevail through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently
in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
two waves moving across the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure over the
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean with 
7-10 ft seas. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern 
Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. In the northwest Caribbean, winds are 
moderate from the E-SE with 3-5 ft seas.

An upper-level low spinning over eastern Cuba is now supporting 
scattered and tstms across the island. This low will continue to
move westward over Cuba Sat and Sun, supporting the developing of
showers and thunderstorms convection over parts of Cuba mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms are observed over the SW Caribbean. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten enough over 
the southern Caribbean to allow for winds to pulse back up to 
gale force for a few hours tonight in the Gulf of Venezuela. A 
tropical wave currently located along 87W will move west of the 
Caribbean tonight. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave over the 
eastern Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in 
the wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly 
across the basin this weekend, then increase from Mon afternoon 
through Wed as a tropical wave currently near 66W/67W moves 
across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on the
two waves moving across the Atlantic.

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the weather pattern across the
Atlantic forecast waters. Based on scatterometer data, a belt of 
moderate to fresh trades is noted around the southern periphery of
this high, affecting mainly the waters S of 25N. Seas are 6-8 ft 
within these winds based on altimeter data. The associated ridge 
extends toward the Bahamas and Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will extend along 29N and E
of northeastern Florida tonight, with the associated gradient 
maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds will 
pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night 
through Sat. The ridge will shift S over the weekend as a cold 
front approaches from the NW. The front will move slowly southeastward
and stall off the southeastern U.S. coast. Fresh SW winds ahead 
of the front over the far NW forecast waters will shift northeast 
of the area late Sun night into Mon as front dissipates. High 
pressure will then build westward near 29N next by early week. 

$$
GR