000 AXNT20 KNHC 080001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 41W, moving W around 15 kt. Strong wind shear and dry air from a Saharan Air Layer outbreak are heavily affecting the environment of this wave, which lacks convection at the moment. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 57W, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air and strong wind shear continue to hinder any significant convection near the wave. A tropical wave is S of 20N with axis near 80W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Strong shear is affecting the southern half environment of the wave, which lacks significant convection. N of 15N, deep layer moisture and a low shear environment is supporting scattered showers and tstms between 74W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 12N21W to 10N27W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W to 10N40W then resumes near 08N42W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 12W and 20W, and from 05N to 10N between 41W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the Gulf is supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas less than 3 ft almost basin-wide. Surface ridging across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high off the Florida Panhandle is supporting moderate return flow W of 95W. The other region with higher winds is the offshore waters to the west of the Yucatan peninula where a thermal trough supports moderate to fresh NE winds. Otherwise, scattered showers associated with a surface trough continue to affect the SE Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will reorganize along 28N Fri through Sat, then shift south to the central Gulf through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. A surface trough extending from northern Florida, south-southwestward to 27N85W and to 23N86W will move slowly westward and weaken through tonight, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. Winds will become fresh southeasterly in the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-central Gulf late Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave extending across the SW Caribbean. Strong wind shear across the eastern half of the basin and portions of the SW Caribbean is maintaining fair weather conditions. Over the north-central Caribbean a middle level trough and an upper level low are supporting scattered showers and tstms across the Hispaniola and the Mona Passage while the northern portion of a tropical wave enhance similar shower activity across Jamaica adjacent waters and the lee side of Cuba. In terms of winds, a strong ridge N of the area tightens the pressure gradient against the tropical wave in the SW Caribbean and continue to support fresh to strong winds E of 80W, being the strongest winds in the south-central basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to 15N80W and to western Panama will move across the rest of the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds behind the wave have increased to fresh to strong over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase from Mon afternoon through Tue night as another tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A high pressure ridge is along 29N extending westward to northern Florida. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 29N extending westward to northern Florida will persist through Fri night resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW forecast waters early Sat. These fresh SW winds will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through Sun night before shifting NE of the area Mon and Mon night as high pressure once again builds westward along 29N through Tue night. $$ Ramos