014 AXNT20 KNHC 041024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 20W in the eastern Atlantic, from 03N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak north of the monsoon trough. Scattered convection is found south of the monsoon trough near the wave axis and described below. A tropical wave extends along 56W in the Atlantic, from 06N to 23N, moving W at 20 kt. This wave is moving through a generally dryand stable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ 08N to 11N between 50W and 60W. A strong tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along 80W south of 22N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 81W and 83.5W, and from 17N to 20N between 78W and 82W. Fresh to strong winds are observed behind the wave between 67W and 77W in the central Caribbean, where seas are 8-11 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough to 06N from 28W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 07.5N between 37W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak 1020 mb high pressure in the NE gulf dominates the pattern tonight. In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 3-4 ft seas. In the southern Gulf, E winds are moderate to locally fresh near the NW Yucatan Peninsula with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. a few fine lines of low clouds extending from the Florida Big Bend S-SW to near 27N have blossomed with scattered moderate convection in recent hours. For the forecast, a surface ridge will extend across the northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting northward to along 30N through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the active wave in the central Caribbean Sea. A strong wind surge continues across most of the central Caribbean tonight behind the robust tropical wave along 80W. Seas are 8-11 ft across much of the area. Winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the tropical wave along 80W will continue moving quickly westward across the western Caribbean through Mon night, followed by the surge of strong winds and high seas. Winds and seas will begin to diminish over most of the basin early Tue through mid week as the tropical wave moves west of the area. Another tropical wave will move across the northeast Caribbean Tue and across the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area following this tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. A weak gradient south of the Atlantic high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are gentle to moderate from the SE to the north of 23N, while moderate to locally fresh conditions prevail south of 23N from the southern Bahamas to 60W. Active convection continues north of Hispaniola tonight to 23.5N as the northern portion of the tropical wave along 80W has sheared away from the wave and is interacting favorably with a middle to upper-level trough across the southern Bahamas. Seas are 6-7 ft across the Atlantic waters from north of the Mona Passage to east of the central Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, gentle E winds north of 28N increase to moderate to locally fresh south of 28N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate NE winds dominate, with an area of fresh winds south of the Canary Islands. Buoys and altimeter data agree that seas are generally 3-5 ft north of 27N and 5-7 ft south of 27N across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over central Cuba is supporting fresh to strong wind, rough seas and active weather across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will gradually diminish through tonight across the SE Bahamas as the wave moves westward, but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Tue night. This northern portion of the tropical wave will move W-NW across the central Bahamas today and then across S Florida Tue and act to enhance diurnal convection. $$ Stripling