000 AXNT20 KNHC 011756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered at 11.1N 81.8W at 01/1800 UTC or 130 nm ESE of Bluefields, Nicaragua, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 nm north of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 150 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant and 90 nm from the center in the southeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 16 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 14N west of 80W, including inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west- northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 33W, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 25W and 32W. The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 61W, from 17N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave axis, from 12N to 16N between 57W and 60W. The 1200 UTC sounding from Barbados showed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture in the lee of the tropical wave, in addition to strong trade winds at the surface. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 06N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 07N to 11N east of 18W. Scattered showers are noted near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between 38W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough located inland along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana is currently producing scattered moderate convection over the waters within 60 nm of the coast. The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong S winds in the far NW Gulf in the vicinity of the convection. Elsewhere in the basin, high pressure dominates. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails, with locally moderate S winds in the NW Gulf. Seas 3-5 ft across the basin, highest in the NW Gulf and lowest in the E Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough located along the southern coast of Texas will move slowly northwest and farther inland today. Active weather is expected to linger across the Texas coastal waters through Fri night. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Outside of the conditions associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie, strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, Bonnie will move to 11.0N 83.0W this evening, inland to 11.0N 85.6W Sat morning, before continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat afternoon. A strong tropical wave located along 60W will move over the Lesser Antilles today and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening through Sat night. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic is being dominated by the Azores High. A weak surface trough extends from 30N54W to 24N57W. A few showers and t-storms are noted in the far NW section of the discussion waters, off the coast of Florida. Across the tropical Atlantic anticyclonic flow is gentle to moderate. The exception is in the lee of the strong tropical wave near the lesser Antilles from 13N to 19N between 54W and 61W, where trades are fresh to locally strong per the latst scatterometer. Across the basin, seas are 4-7 ft, with locally 8 ft seas near the coast of Africa. In the aforementioned area of fresh to strong winds from 13N to 19N between 54W and 61W, seas are 8-10 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and TS Bonnie will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a strong tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend will bring a broad surge of winds and seas across the waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun. $$ Mahoney/Colon-Burgos