000 AXNT20 KNHC 011224 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Updated to include the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave near 11.5N 79.9W at 01/1200 UTC or 230 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 77W and 84W. A continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 31W, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 29W and 33W. The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 58W, from 17N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 55W and 59W. See the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 07N28W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N and E of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 24W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh S-SE winds in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate easterlies are impacting the SE basin, including the Florida Straits, with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are light in the NE basin with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located along the southern coast of Texas will move slowly northwest and farther inland today. Active weather is expected to linger across the Texas coastal waters through Fri night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 11.5N 79.2W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Two will move W-SW today and reach near 11.3N 81.4W this afternoon as a Tropical Storm, then move inland across southeastern Nicaragua near 11.3N 84.0W tonight, before continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific waters late Sat afternoon. A strong tropical wave located along 58W will move over the Lesser Antilles today and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening through Sat night. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Azores high dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. In the western basin, mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of 27N and east of 77W while moderate SSE winds are observed off the Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N, including the Windward Passage, where seas are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with 8-10 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 7-9 ft seas north of 17N with gentle winds and moderate seas south of 17N. For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic along 40N and will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a strong tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend will bring a broad surge of winds and seas across the waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun. $$ AReinhart