000 AXNT20 KNHC 301159 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022 Updated to include the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the 1200 UTC Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 73.43 at 30/1200 UTC or 620 nm E of Bluefields, Nicaragua, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft within 120 nm northern semicircle from the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the central and eastern Caribbean between 66W and 76W. Some decrease in forward speed with a continued motion toward the west is forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward and move slowly inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if it remains over water. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25W, extending from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 30W. A pair of tropical waves are in the western Atlantic, one with axis along 49W and the other along 54W, each moving at 20 kt and 15 kt, respectively. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 46W and 56W. These two waves are forecast to merge late today and move over the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean Fri and Sat. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 87W, S of 18N, moving W near 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at the present time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 05N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 26W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more information on a low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf. The main feature in the gulf is the area of low pressure mentioned above, which has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression. This system is generating scattered showers and tstms across the coastal and offshore waters of SW Louisiana and Texas. Moderate to fresh winds are associated and in the vicinity of this low. Moderate return flow is across the remainder western half of the gulf while light to gentle variable winds are E of 90W. Seas are between 1-3 ft, highest over the NW basin. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail basin-wide during the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 12.0N 72.4W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The pressure gradient between Two and the Atlantic ridge to the north continue to support mainly fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the north-central and portions of the SW basin. Seas in these regions fluctuate between 7 to 10 ft. The far western Caribbean is under the influence of gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Two will move to 12.0N 75.3W this afternoon, 11.5N 79.0W Fri morning, 11.1N 81.9W Fri afternoon, inland to 11.1N 84.6W Sat morning, 11.1N 87.1W Sat afternoon, and 11.5N 89.6W Sun morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.8N 95.2W early Mon. A tropical wave with axis near 54W will merge with a trailing wave late today and move across the Lesser Antilles along with a surge of winds and waves on Fri. The wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sat, and the central Caribbean on Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature covering the subtropical Atlantic waters is a ridge, which is favoring fair weather. This is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 26N in the western and central subtropical basin and fresh to locally strong NE winds off the coast of NW Africa where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range. Otherwise, see the tropical waves section. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the forecast period supporting return flow in the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the passage of both Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a strong trailing tropical wave will lead to fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico as well as the Caribbean passages through Mon. $$ Ramos/Mahoney