000 AXNT20 KNHC 290038 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022 Updated for 0000 UTC Information in Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 10.4N 61.0W at 28/0000 UTC or 10 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater are currently confined to the northern semicircle. As of 2100 UTC, Peak seas are 13 ft within 120 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm W semicircle and 240 nm NE quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia on Wed and Thu. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland on Wed night or Thu. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. As of 2100 UTC, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in association with this low. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 37W extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 37W and 44W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W, extending from 02N to 14N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 44W and 50W. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next several days, and some gradual development is possible later this week while the overall system moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 77W, S of Jamaica, and moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 17N between 72W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N24W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 08N33W, from 08N36W to 08N44W, and from 08N47W to 09N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N-14N between the coast of Africa and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A weak surface from just NW of the western tip of Cuba to just S of the western Florida Panhandle is inducing scattered moderate convection. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail. Some moderate SE winds have developed this evening in the far NE Gulf. For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters through the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave along 73W. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with mainly gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the far SW Caribbean S of 10N, and 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. Aside from Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu night, cross the islands on Fri, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night. A surge in winds and seas are expected with this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic that has low potential for tropical cyclone formation. An upper-level low is centered just E of the Florida Straits. An associated surface trough resides over the NW Bahamas. As a result, scattered moderate convection is noted in the central and NW Bahamas. An upper-level trough then extends NE from the NW Bahamas to Bermuda, and scattered moderate convection in association with it stretches from 27N to 31N between 67W and 72W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure along 40N to the west of the Azores. S of 21N, fresh trades prevail. Strong NE winds are occurring N of the Cabo Verde Islands, extending N and E through the Canary Islands and off the Moroccan coast. Elsewhere north of 21N, mainly moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8 ft or greater from 08N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N. $$ Konarik/Lewitsky