000 AXNT20 KNHC 281054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 9.3N 55.2W at 28/0900 UTC or 360 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE semicircle of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between 51W and 62W. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 31W extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 30W and 39W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 44W, extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, S of 16N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 16N between 64W and 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 10N22W where the ITCZ then begins and continues along 07N29W, it then resumes near 06N32W to 06N42W, and from 06N45W to 08N52W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf, which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range, except in the far NW basin where a surface trough and associated low is providing moderate NE winds. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this area of low pressure are affecting the offshore waters of Texas and Louisiana. For the forecast, the surface trough of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico will move generally westward and approach the coast of Texas during the next few days. While shower and thunderstorm activity with this system is currently limited, some additional development is possible. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters Wed into the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 9.3N 55.2W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. While Two is currently ESE of the Windward Islands, a tropical wave is in the central Caribbean generating isolated showers between Hispaniola and Venezuela. In the SW basin, the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and tstms, including the coastal and offshore waters of Nicaragua. The pressure gradient between the north-central Atlantic ridge and the tropical wave continue to support mainly fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean where seas are in the 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Two will move to 9.9N 58.2W this afternoon, 10.7N 62.3W Wed morning, 11.3N 66.3W Wed afternoon, 11.7N 70.2W Thu morning, 12.0N 73.7W Thu afternoon, and 11.9N 77.1W Fri morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.8N 82.5W early Sat. Otherwise, the tropical wave behind Two is forecast to bring winds and seas to the NE Caribbean from Fri to Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a Gale Warning off the coast of Morocco. An upper-level trough over the central Bahamas is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and southeast Bahamas, and near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1024 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is dominating north of 24N between 20W and the Georgia/Florida coast with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found from 09N to 24N between the central African coast and the Lesser/Greater Antilles. Besides the gale winds, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N between the northwest African coast and 20W. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin, except area near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 41N. A tropical wave accompanied with winds and seas will move across the Caribbean over the weekend with some of that energy extending across portions of the Atlantic waters near the Windward Islands through Sun. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this system as it moves W across the region. $$ Ramos