999 AXNT20 KNHC 272226 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The tropical wave located well ESE of the southern Windward Islands and associated low pressure have become better organized this afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 8.6N 50.9W at 27/2100 UTC or 630 nm E of Trinidad moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 45W and 55W. Peak seas are near 11 ft. The poorly-defined center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to continue moving W to WNW fairly quickly over the next several days. The environment appears favorable for development, and a tropical storm will likely form of this system before it reaches the southern Windward Islands. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands Tue night and Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a persisting low pressure area over Algeria is inducing gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/03 UTC. Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 29W, extending from the equator to 17N, and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N-10N between 23W-32W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 40W, extending from 01N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 38W-44W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 69W, south of 17N and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 17N between 60W-70W including N Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N19W to 07N26W, continues from 06N29W to 08N38W, then from 08N40W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 18W. See the tropical waves section for information about additional convective activity. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak low pressure trough extends from the central Louisiana coast S to near 27N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 89W and 93W. A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 1-2 ft range. For the forecast, the trough will drift westward over the next few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the remnants of the trough across the north-central Gulf tonight and drift west and inland through Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. A tropical wave continues to generate showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section for details. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High well north of the area and a 1011 mb Colombian low hear 10N78W is forcing moderate to fresh E trades in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate E trades in the western Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. The eastern end of the Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Central America at 10N83W to Colombia at 10N78W and is producing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 75W-80W. For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and on a Gale Warning off the coast of Morocco. The subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb Bermuda High near 40N42W and an Azores High near 38N21W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures along the ITCZ results in fresh to locally strong E trades from 10N-20N between 45W- 60W as well as north of 20N east of 20W with seas 7-10 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. An upper- level trough just east of the Florida peninsula is inducing a surface trough from 22N72W to 26N68W along with scattered moderate/isolated strong convection from 21N-26N between 68W-77W. For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will drift westward and weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W by late Tue, possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea through Wed night, and the central Caribbean through Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region. $$ Konarik