000 AXNT20 KNHC 271102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N47W. The disturbance is moving W around 16 kts. Fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and seas of 8-11 ft are in the vicinity of the wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a persisting low pressure area over Western Sahara is inducing gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/00 UTC. Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 20W, extending from 02N to 16N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 15W and 32W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 32W, extending from 02N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 30W and 40W. A tropical wave is just to the E of the Lesser Antilles with axis along 62W, south of 17N and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over a great portion of the Lesser Antilles, and across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through this morning and spread across the ABC islands later today and tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N21W to 07N31W and continues from 07N34W to 08N46W and then from 07N48W to 06N56W. See the tropical waves section for information about convection. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 1-2 ft range. Otherwise, shallow moisture streaming from the Caribbean is supporting scattered showers over the coastal and offshore waters of SE Louisiana where a surface trough extends from 38N89W to 24N84W. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift westward over the next few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the remnants of the trough across the north-central Gulf tonight and drift west and inland through Wed. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave continues to generate showers and tstorms with gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section for details. Otherwise, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is over the offshores of Colombia and Panama associated with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Strong high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic extends SSW into the northern Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of mainly fresh easterlies across the eastern half of the basin where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed through Wed night, through the central Caribbean Thu and across the western Caribbean late Thu through Fri. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the gale near the coast of Morocco. A couple of weak surface trough between Bermuda and the Bahamas are triggering some showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly N of 21N and between 63W and 79W. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that some of the strongest storms are producing fresh to strong southerly winds. Moderate to fresh trades are present S of 22N and W of 60W, along with seas of 3-5 ft. The rest of the area W of 60W is experiencing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge positioned between Newfoundland and the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures across the deep tropics result in fresh to strong trades S of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the area described are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 09N45W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extending from near 30N76W southwestward to 27N80W will drift westward and weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed through Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region. $$ Ramos