000 AXNT20 KNHC 261035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its axis is along 40W/41W south of 16N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. A small cyclonic circulation is along the wave axis near 08N41W. Convection of the numerous moderate to strong type increased during the overnight hours. It is noted within 180 nm SW and 150 nm NW of the small cyclonic circulation. Latest satellite imagery also shows scattered moderate to isolated strong that crosses the wave axis within 30 nm of a line from 09N36W to 10N39W and to 11N41W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas of 8-10 ft are occurring from 11N to 18N and between 42W-55W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of the upcoming week. This system is forecast to continue on a westward track over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tue then move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from 02N to 05N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 300 nm east of the wave from 04N to 10N, and within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 16N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to 13N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm east of the wave from 10N to 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 09N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N25W, then from 07N28W to 09N34W to 10N39W, and from 08N43W to 09N50W to 10N55W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted along the west coast of Africa from Liberia all the way to southern Senegal, likely associated with the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low that is inland central Mississippi southeastward to the Alabama coast near Mobile, and continues southeastward to inland southwest Florida. An overnight ASCAT data pass captured a northeast to east wind shift of gentle speeds across the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined to the NE and north-central Gulf waters. The rest of the Gulf region is under the influence of a 1015 mb high pressure analyzed 25N85W. Its associated gradient is allowing for light to gentle winds. Seas are 2 to 3 ft throughout For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will drift westward over the next few days with possible slow development. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low- level convergence supports clusters of mainly moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean, including the water adjacent to western Venezuela, Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of western Haiti and over few locations of the eastern and southern sections of the Dominican Republic. Overnight ASCAT data passes depict moderate to locally fresh trades across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate winds elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the northwest part of the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will become mainly fresh winds this morning and through early Mon as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this wave, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of the upcoming week as it moves generally westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical cyclone formation as described above under Special Features. Please see the Tropical Waves section details on the other two tropical waves. A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N70W to 30N71W, where it becomes a trough to 29N73W and to 26N75W. Another trough extends from near 31N75W southwestward to inland South Florida, and continues west-northwestward into the NE Gulf of Mexico. An overnight ASCAT data pass showed mainly moderate northeast to east winds northwest of the stationary front and trough. Mainly light and variable winds are north of about 24N and west of 67W. A rather vigorous upper-level trough is producing an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N between 63W-70W. A third trough is analyzed along 61W from 29N to 33N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are see within 120 nm east of this trough, and also from 24N to 29N between 58W-62W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are dominated by a strong 1034 mb high pressure center analyzed well north of the area near 40N43W. A recent altimeter data pass detected seas peaking to 8-9 ft outside the areas impacted by the Special Features tropical wave from 16N to 20N between and 46W-50W. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate trades generally continue north of 23N with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh trades are present from the ITCZ to 23N, where seas are 6-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from near 31N75W to South Florida will drift westward during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the region. $$ Aguirre