000 AXNT20 KNHC 221803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 17W from the Gambia coast southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 15W and 20W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 17N southward into western Venezuela, and moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers are present near central Venezuela. Another tropical wave is near 95W from the western Bay of Campeche southward across Mexico into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the western Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends westward across the southern Senegal coast through 13N25W to 11N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N between Liberia, Ivory Coast and 15W. An ITCZ runs westward from 08N36W through 07N50W to near Georgetown, Guyana. Scattered showers are present up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for significant weather in the Gulf. A 1021 mb high pressure south of Lake Charles, Louisiana is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft exit for the southern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the 1021 mb high will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, promoting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh at night through Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough curves southwestward from the west-central Atlantic across the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras. This feature is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern and north-central basin, including Cuba, Haiti and the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. The Atlantic ridge extending from a 1035 mb Azores High across 31N50W to near Hispaniola is sustaining NE to E trade-wind regime for the most of the basin. Fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found across the south-central basin north of Colombia and Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades will dominate. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from a 1017 mb low east of Bermuda across 31N61W to 25N71W, then a surface trough continues from 25N71W to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 210 nm south of this boundary. Light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from the Bahamas northward between 55W and the Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Despite the presence of an Atlantic ridge, which supports gentle to moderate NE to E trades north of 20N between the central African coast and 55W; NE swell is keeping seas at 6 to 8 ft in the area. Light to gentle NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 6 ft are found from 09N to 20N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned surface trough will drift westward over the Bahamas and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop east of the Georgia/northern Florida coast tonight into Fri as a 1017 low pressure drifts off the Georgia coast. $$ Chan