000 AXNT20 KNHC 220551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the Greater Antilles southward between the eastern Caribbean Sea islands and 70W. An upper level trough extends from the border of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between the tropical wave and 98W. Strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 20N to 23N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of The Gambia, to the Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N30W 07N37W 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to 07N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 620 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 14W and 22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14W eastward, and within 320 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the border of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between the tropical wave and 98W. Strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 20N to 23N. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 33N70W, to 30N75W, through NE Florida, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is about 45 nm to the south of the Florida Panhandle, then southwestward to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, away from the tropical wave. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW Gulf of Mexico, and they range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N northward from 80W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is entering the area from the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate remains in the area of cyclonic wind flow between 70W and 80W. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N80W, through SE Nicaragua and western Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm to north of 10N between the coast of Colombia and 79W, and from 11N southward between 80W and 82W. An Atlantic Ocean high pressure center is to the northeast of the area. Comparatively lower surface pressures are in the SW Caribbean Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range: from 7 feet to 8 feet from 11N to 14N between 70W and 80W; from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Gulf of Honduras; from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 57W westward. A stationary front is along 31N62W to 25N72W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 58W eastward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between 25W and 57W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been ranging: from 8 feet to 9 feet from 21N northward between 20W and 45W; from 2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas westward; from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A trough over the eastern waters will drift westward over the southern waters and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the NW waters Thu and Fri as low pres shifts north of the area. $$ mt/al