000 AXNT20 KNHC 201747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 69W, from 15N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Convection is inland over W Venezuela. Recent Upper Air Sounding data from Barbados, Cayenne, and Guadeloupe, internal NHC Tropical Wave Diagnostics, and GOES-16 Satellite Data, all support the analysis of the tropical wave axis at this longitude. This is a significant adjustment from prior analyses, and will be reflected in products beginning with the 1800 UTC Unified Surface Analysis. At 1500 UTC, the axis of a tropical wave is near 87W from 22N southward, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 17N west of 82W, including inland over NE Nicaragua and E Honduras. Fresh to strong SE to E winds are evident in the NW Caribbean west of 84W in the latest observations, with 4-6 ft seas. Seas may peak locally at 7 ft in the highest winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N26N to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 08N to 11N between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection near the ITCZ is from 08N to 11N between 56W and 60W. Additional scattered showers are noted along both features. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, the stationary front located in the far NE Gulf has dissipated. Also as of 1500 UTC, a weak surface trough is in the NW Gulf, and 1012 mb low pressure is centered in the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of these features. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted across the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft north of 26N, and 3-5 ft south of 26N. For the forecast, the low pressure will bring periodic showers and thunderstorms for the Bay of Campeche through this evening. Otherwise, surface ridging will provide gentle to moderate winds across much of the Gulf through Tue night, except the west- central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SE winds are expected. Afterward, the weakening ridge should provide gentle to moderate winds for the entire Gulf through the weekend. NE winds at the eastern Bay of Campeche will pulse to between fresh and strong on Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave currently impacting the NW Caribbean. Some scattered showers, associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, are noted in the southwest Caribbean. An area of moderate to fresh trade winds is evident on the latest scatterometer pass in the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean where winds are highest and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast and monsoon trough near Panama and western Colombia will prolong fresh to strong E to ESE winds and higher seas across the western and central basin, including the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. These winds should become gentle to moderate by Tue afternoon as the Atlantic ridge weakens. Winds in the south-central basin will be moderate to fresh until Wed, then become fresh with locally strong by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 1500 UTC, a cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N63W and continues to 27N69W to the northern Bahamas near 27N71W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the front. Recent scatterometer depicts gentle to locally moderate NE winds behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical Azores high pressure centered north of the area. In the E Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds are found north of 27N east of 40W, with 7-10 ft seas in NE swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow continues, with 4-6 ft seas in the W Atlantic and 4-7 ft seas in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front and related weather will sink southward into the central Bahamas through Tue, then stall and dissipate late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist east of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and dominate much of the Atlantic Basin. $$ Mahoney/Colon-Burgos