000 AXNT20 KNHC 191759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 50W and 55W. At 1500 UTC, the axis of a tropical wave is along 85W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 18N between 83W and 87W. At this time, convective activity within the described area is limited to the NW Caribbean waters and coastal areas of NE Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Recent scatterometer data detected fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west of 83W in the vicinity of the wave axis. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to 1012 mb low pressure at 12N21W to 08N25W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 06N50W. Convective activity is limited to the monsoon trough, with scattered moderate convection from 08N to 14N west of 20W and from 03N to 10N between 22W and 30W. Recent scatterometer data detected a swath of fresh SSW winds south of the monsoon trough between 20W and 30W, with some reliable strong to near gale force readings near the strongest convection. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered just inland over SE Texas as of 1500 UTC remains in force across the Gulf of Mexico. In the NE Gulf, a stalled frontal boundary extends from near Steinhatchee, FL to New Orleans, LA. A couple scattered showers and tstorms are noted from 26N to 28N between 86W and 89W. In the SW Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. The latest observations indicate the persistence of light to gentle NE to E winds across the basin, increasing to gentle to moderate speeds in southern portions of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle part of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave impacting the NW Caribbean waters. Outside of the NW Caribbean, which is largely dominated by a passing tropical wave, moderate trades are found elsewhere in the Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. The exception is the central Caribbean, where the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over South America and the SW Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong trades. The persistence of these winds over the past couple of days has built seas to 7-9 ft in E swell in the central Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 72W and 77W. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and eastern Pacific will continue to support fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central and northwest Caribbean through the early part of next week. Very active weather is expected across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through early Mon as a tropical wave moves through the area. Winds and seas will diminish basin wide through mid week as the ridge weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 1500 UTC, a stalled front extends from the coast of Florida along 30N to 30N74W, where a cold front continues to 31N70W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundary, and the latest scatterometer data indicates merely gentle W winds along the boundary. An area of scattered moderate convection is apparent on satellite from 25N to 29N between 65W and 70W, likely a result of surface convergence between the approaching cold front and anticyclonic winds within the western edge of the subtropical ridge. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the waters north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds south of the 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 65W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary across the NW waters will sink southward across the waters north of 27N through Mon then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and extend a modest ridge across the area. $$ Mahoney