000 AXNT20 KNHC 181748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W from 15N southward, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 44W and 47W,. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 17N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N between 76W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to 04N42W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 05N to 11N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface observations at 1500 UTC indicate a well-defined 1018 mb high pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 28.5N94W. A weak surface trough is positioned in the Bay of Campeche producing scattered showers. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow with 2-4 ft seas are found across the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras, from the coast of Honduras north to 18N west of 85W. Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage. Moderate trades prevail over the Caribbean, except in the south-central Caribbean and portions of the Gulf of Venezuela, where trades are fresh. Seas are 4-6 ft, locally 7 ft in highest winds. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the exception of fresh strong winds over the south central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will then diminish slightly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low centered over the Bahamas is producing scattered showers in the region. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N58W to 29N69W. Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered at 27N51W, with a stationary front extending from the low north to 31N48W. A weak surface trough extends south from the low pressure to 25.5N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of these features. 1017 mb high pressure, an extension of the subtropical Azores high, is centered near 22N64W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical Azores high centered north of the discussion area. Anticyclonic winds are gentle to moderate across the basin west of 30W, with 4-6 ft seas. East of 30W, NE winds are moderate to fresh due to a higher pressure gradient and seas are 6-8 ft in NE swell. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front currently approaching the area from the north will sink southward across the waters north of 27N Sun through Mon then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. $$ Mahoney