000 AXNT20 KNHC 161016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 14N, moving W at 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 66W S of 15N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave extends S into central Venezuela where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted. Similar convective activity is near the northern end of the wave axis. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convection. A second tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea along 82W S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is along the wave axis over the SW Caribbean. This convective activity is affecting the Atlantic coasts of coast of Costa Rica and western Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also observed just E of the wave axis from 16N to 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea Bissau and The Gambia near 12N17W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave from 06N35W to the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between 06N and 12N, and from 06N to 10N between 45W and 56W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located over central Alabama extends a ridge across the Gulf waters while a surface trough is analyzed over western Florida. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the basin with slight to moderate seas. The exception is an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E over the Bay of Campeche associated with the thermal trough that usually develops over the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours, moves westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipates in the SW Gulf in the morning. For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Nicaragua is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 5 days based on latest Tropical Weather Outlook. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at night. Slight to moderate seas are expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds over most of the E and central Caribbean, and also E of the Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate winds prevail W of 80W. Embedded areas of fresh to strong winds are seen near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic, and in the southern Caribbean S of 15N between 68W and 72W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, an area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Nicaragua is accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is unlikely today while the low remains inland. The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean later today through Sat morning in association with the above mentioned area of low pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 72W at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to 29N74W to 30N78W. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front while moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft based on altimeter data and buoys observations. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N32W. The associated ridge extends westward towards the Bahamas. North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 5-7 ft seas. Within the ridge, winds are light to gentle with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will move across the N waters today reaching 27N by tonight, then stall on Fri before dissipating over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 65W through this evening. A second but weaker cold front will move across the same region on Sun. A ridge will follow the front. $$ GR