000 AXNT20 KNHC 151007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 25W, from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 58W, from 14N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern half of the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 76W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to NE Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of a tropical wave from 06N to 16N and E of 28W. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean from 11N75W to 1009 mb low near 12N83W to 12N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed in the NE Gulf near 27N86W. The gradient between this feature and lower pressure over northern Mexico is generating moderate to fresh E-SE flow in the western Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the eastern Gulf with gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently affecting the Bay of Campeche area including the Mexican coastline, with stronger winds and higher seas expected near this activity. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist across the basin through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by the weekend as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean has decreased over the last 24-hours. Easterly winds are now moderate to fresh across the majority of the basin, with gentle to moderate conditions in the NW basin. Seas are generally 5-8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in the eastern Caribbean from 12N to 18N east of 68W with similar activity noted over portions of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, weak low pressure currently located to the east of southern Nicaragua will remain nearly stationary through today, then drift slowly NW along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week, and over the Gulf of Honduras through early Sat. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. A surface ridge north of the area will persist supporting fresh to occasionally strong E winds along with choppy seas between these features through the end of the work week. The strongest winds are expected in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1025 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near 30N40W dominates the weather pattern. A ridge extends from the high center towards central Florida. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SW with 3-5 ft seas. Within the ridge axis, winds are gentle with 2-4 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will meander east to west along 26N through tonight. A cold front will enter the northern waters tonight, extending from 31N59W to 30N74W early Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 28N55W to 27N60W. The front will bring fresh to strong winds to areas east of 68W and north of 28N. The ridge will build again along 25N by late Fri. A weak cold front should move through the area late in the weekend. $$ ERA