000 AXNT20 KNHC 141742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 540 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 13N, also near the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 15N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 06N to 13N, mostly inland in South America. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the Central America, from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through Honduras and Nicaragua, southward. Precipitation is in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 08N to 16N from 95W eastward. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation is in the eastern Pacific Ocean between the 86W/87W tropical and the 92W/93W tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W close to the border with Guinea, to 09N20W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W, to 04N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W eastward. This does not count the precipitation that is associated with the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico from 20N northward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 19N to 26N between 94W and 102W, inland in Mexico and in the coastal waters. Isolated moderate rainshowers are on the western side of an Atlantic Ocean upper level 71W/72W inverted trough, from 20N northward from the Straits of Florida eastward. A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 22N98W in the coastal plains of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure in Mexico, is generating moderate to fresh SE winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the western Gulf. The winds are fresh to strong, and the wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The conditions are more favorable in the eastern half of the Gulf, with gentle winds and slight seas. A surface ridge will persist across the basin through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase in the south central Gulf by the weekend as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean Sea. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong surface pressure gradient exists between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds, and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, through the majority of the basin. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, where the wave heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet. Fresh to strong NE winds have been funneling through the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to SE Costa Rica, and beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward from 73W westward, in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge, to the north of the area, will persist through the middle of the week, to the north of an active monsoon trough that is in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong E winds and choppy seas, between these features through the end of the work week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras. Low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea will move northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, during the latter half of this week and into the weekend. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level inverted trough is along 71W/72W, from Hispaniola to 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 55W and the Straits of Florida. The base of an upper level trough is near 12N59W, just to the east of the Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 17N between 58W and 66W in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. Upper level winds are pushing moisture into the areas that are from 13N to 25N between 40W and 60W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 31N41W, to 30N50W 27N70W, through the NW Bahamas, toward the north central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate southerly winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are to the north of the 31N41W-to-NW Bahamas surface ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the south of the 31N41W-to-NW Bahamas surface ridge. The winds are gentle, and the wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet, within the ridge. Fresh easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the central Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds, and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge will meander east to west along 26N through Wed night. A cold front will enter the northern waters Wed night, extending from 31N65W to 29N72W early Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 29N55W to 27N59W. The front will bring fresh winds to areas east of 70W and north of 27N. The ridge will build again along 25N by Sat. $$ mt/ah