000 AXNT20 KNHC 131747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection near the wave axis is inland over northern South America. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm of a line from 15N83W to 10N79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N20W to 06N30W to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 06N43W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 13W and 16W, and from 06N to 08N between 26W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from central Florida to near the Sabine Pass between Louisiana and Texas. A few observations along the Texas coast are showing SE winds to 20 kt, west of the ridge axis. This pattern also is supporting moderate E to SE flow over the western Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas, and mostly light breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. Divergence aloft on the east side of an upper low centered over north-central Mexico is supporting a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico. For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area this afternoon and evening. This will continue to support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf through Wed night and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. The convergence of these persistent trade winds is supporting the line of thunderstorms from off eastern Panama to off eastern Honduras. Conditions are more favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are slight. For the forecast, this pattern will continue to support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high westward to east- central Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern Bahamas, currently. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is evident farther east, near 23N65W related to a weak mid level trough in the area. Fresh to strong E winds are funneling along the higher terrain of the northern coast of Hispaniola, south of the ridge axis. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted along the ridge axis. Elsewhere south of the ridge axis across the tropical Atlantic and most of the subtropical Atlantic moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to east-central Florida will lift north of the area through the middle of the week. This will support gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. pressure centered near 33N42W westward to east-central Florida. $$ mt/ec