000 AXNT20 KNHC 131011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, south of 14N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 37W and 42W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 62W, south of 20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis affecting portions of eastern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 80W, south of 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection has become much more organized over the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 20N between 79W and 83W. A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC with axis along 88W, south of 18N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis mainly south of 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 08N37W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 11N and east of 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida towards Texas and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting fresh southerly flow in the western Gulf. Moderate easterly winds dominate the southern Gulf, with gentle winds in the eastern basin. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the eastern basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area today. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf through Wed night and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are slight. For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will persist through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave affecting the basin. In the western Atlantic, a surface ridge extends SW from a 1028 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 33N45W towards south Florida. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the south, with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the east, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis, with 2-4 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh from the ENE, with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will lift north of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. This will support gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ ERA