000 AXNT20 KNHC 121038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 14N with axis along 31W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 29W and 36W. A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N to 20N with axis along 52W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 49W and 60W. A tropical wave in the Caribbean extends S of 20N with axis along 72W, moving W at roughly 15 kt. Associated convection is scattered and moderate over central Hispaniola adjacent waters and numerous strong inland over NW Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends S of 18N along 84W, which has remained nearly stationary over the last 10 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave is across the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N26W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 05N31W to 02N51W. Convection is isolated and weak along these boundaries. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean from 11N75W to 09N82W. Scattered moderate with isolated areas of strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 73W and 84W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the eastern half of the basin while lower pressure is W of 90W. This pattern is resulting in moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate S to SW winds E of 90W. Seas are 3-4 ft across the basin. Otherwise, a col of low pressure in the middle levels and moisture streaming from the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and isolated tstms in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge is forecast to extend all the way to Texas the next few days. This will support moderte to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the Gulf through Wed night and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure near the SW Caribbean is supporting mainly fresh to strong trade winds across the majority of the central and eastern basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia, where seas are 6-8 ft. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the eastern and central basin, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Other than the previously discussed convection in the SW Caribbean related to the East Pacific monsoon trough, a few showers and thunderstorms are observed just south of the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist north of the area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds pulsing along with occasionally rough seas into early next week between these features over mainly the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the western Caribbean of Honduras by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern remains dominated by a ridge extending from high pressure near the Azores towards the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the the Western Atlantic north of 29N and west of 77W. Moderate S-E winds dominate the area west of 50W and north of 22N with 3-5 ft seas. South of 22N, winds increase fresh to strong from E with 5-8 ft seas. Winds are mainly moderate to fresh from the NE across the central and eastern basin, with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Ramos