736 AXNT20 KNHC 112054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 27W, from 13N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. This was relocated westward from the earlier position. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 24W and 28W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 47W, from 07N to 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The Saharan Air Layer is currently inhibiting convective activity. This tropical wave is currently embedded within a Potential Vorticity Streamer (PVS). A PVS is an elongated strip of air transported southward from the midlatitudes which possesses a higher potential vorticity than the surrounding environment. A PVS can interact with tropical waves in the subtropics. These interactions may increase the sharpness of the tropical wave axis, dictate the forward motion of the tropical wave, and affect convection associated with the tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 69W, from 14N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The position is based in part on wind shifts noted in sounding data from Santo Domingo and San Juan, as well as a prominent easterly wind surge noted on visible satellite imagery. Fairly dry Saharan air follows the wave, but a few showers and thunderstorms followed the wave axis across the Mona Passage earlier this morning, and isolated thunderstorms are currently active near 15N67W. A tropical wave just exited the SW Caribbean and is now positioned along 84W, from 16N southward, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, continues across the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 75W inland over Colombia and 84W along the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. No showers or thunderstorms are noted other than already described above in the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to near New Orleans, Louisiana. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the east central Gulf, supported by divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough digging from the Carolina coast to the northeast Gulf. Farther south, a surface ridge extends from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate S to SW breezes and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, At 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary was analyzed in the NW Gulf from 28N85W to 27N86W to 27N88W, leading an area of scattered moderate convection the is observed on satellite from 26N to 28N between 85W and 88W. The boundary and convection are moving southward at around 30 kt. This convection has a history of fresh to strong winds, with higher gusts, according to observations from earlier this morning. Elsewhere in the Gulf, weak ridging extending from the subtropical Azores high supports light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the Gulf with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter into mid week as the ridge weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong pressure gradient between the extension of the Azores High and the East Pacific monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean currently supports fresh to strong trades across the south- central and southwest Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are currently 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, mainly moderate trades are in force with 4-6 ft seas. Please see the Tropical Waves section for a description of convection in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds pulsing along with occasionally rough seas into early next week between these features over mainly the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the western Caribbean of Honduras by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Azores high centered north of the discussion area continues to dominate the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted west of surface ridge, north of the Bahamas. Elsewhere north of 20N, light to gentle anticyclonic flow persists across the basin with 3-5 ft seas, except fresh N winds and 4-6 ft seas east of 35W. South of 20N and west of 35W, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the strongest winds. South of 20N and east of 35W, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed in the W Atlantic from 29N62W to 24N63W, with scattered showers noted in the vicinity of the trough axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Christensen