000 AXNT20 KNHC 111056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N with axis along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate convection is behind the wave axis from 02N to 12N between 06W and 17W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 05N to 17N with axis along 39W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave at the moment. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, S of 14N with axis along 62W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers associated with the wave are affecting the SE Caribbean, including the Windward Islands. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean S of 15N with axis along 83W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 15N between 75W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N16W to 06N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 08N37W. The ITCZ then resumes W of a tropical wave from 02N41W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 20W and 28W. For further information on convection, see the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient remains across the basin, but with the influence of the SW extension of the Azores ridge to the east, gentle to moderate SSE winds dominate the region, except for moderate to locally fresh SW winds in the NE gulf. These higher winds are ahead of a weak cold front that extends from south- central Georgia SW to W to the coast of Mississippi. A middle to upper level trough support numerous moderate convection ahead of the front N of 27N between 86W and 90W. Seas across the basin are up to 3 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging extending from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient remains in portions of the Caribbean associated with the extension of the Azores high to the northern basin. This is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Otherwise, a tropical wave over the Nicaragua offshore waters and an active E Pacific monsoon are supporting scattered showers and tstms across the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the SW extension of the Azores high will reach the northern half of the Caribbean and along with an active monsoon trough across Central America and the SW Caribbean will support the continuation of fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin, and the Gulf of Honduras through the middle of next week. Rough seas are likely in those regions through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate winds over the far NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For the forecast west of 55W, the SW ridge extension of the Azores high will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters through most of the forecast period, including the Bahamas. This will support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken on Wed night as the tail of a cold front brushes the NE offshore waters, increasing the winds to fresh to strong. $$ Ramos