000 AXNT20 KNHC 071754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 13N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is mixed with the ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 19N southward, between 44W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 13N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N southward between 66W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 13N southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Caribbean Sea waters, and inland areas of Central America from 17N southward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough runs from Colombia near 09N75W, through Panama from east-to-west, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N between 74W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ is along 04N06W 04N12W 06N20W 06N32W, and along 06N between 36W and 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 10W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 28N82W in Florida, to 29N86W in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: no significant deep convection is related directly to the surface trough. Broad surface low pressure covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the Straits of Florida and south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and 86W, from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak surface ridge extends from the north central Gulf of Mexico, southwestward, to 22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are primarily W of 94W. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are off south Texas, mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly winds are offshore northern Yucatan. Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 94W westward, and they range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the area. High pressure will dominate the basin through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will prevail in the NW Gulf through late this morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast on Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with the high pressure regime. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface low pressure covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the Straits of Florida and south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and 86W, from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean. Two tropical waves are moving through the Caribbean Sea. Most of the precipitation is concentrated either in the northwestern corner of the area, or in the southwestern corner of the area. Fresh to strong winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. The wave heights in that area range from 5 feet to 8 feet. Moderate to fresh winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the rest of the central Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern section. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds are in the southwestern corner of the area. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW corner and in the SW corner. The Atlc Ocean ridge extends from the eastern Atlc Ocean, southwestward to the central Bahamas, and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south central Caribbean Sea, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the end of the week across the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface low pressure covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the Straits of Florida and south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and 86W, from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is along 31N54W 26N60W 25N67W. The trough is at the end of a frontal boundary that merged with the Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex yesterday. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N29W, to 30N42W 25N52W 23N70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward, away from surface trough. The winds W of 65W are light to moderate, although stronger winds are likely with the heaviest precipitation that is near the Bahamas. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Fresh to strong W-SW winds are between the surface trough and 65W. The wave heights in this area range from 8 feet to 12 feet. The comparatively highest wave heights are in the waters that are from 30N to Bermuda between 60W and 65W. Fresh to strong winds, and high seas trailing Post-tropical Alex, will continue to affect the NE zones, with wind diminishing by late this morning and seas gradually subsiding, through mid-week. High pressure extends westward into the central Bahamas. A surface trough along about 26N will linger and drift S across the E waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen across the region by Sat to produce fresh S to SW winds to the north of 27N and west of 70W. $$ mt/era