000 AXNT20 KNHC 060417 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Alex is located near 32.5N 69.0W, or about 215 nm W of Bermuda. Alex is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, at 24 knots. The minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. 12 ft seas extend up to 275 nm in the eastern semicircle. Buoy 41048 near 32N70W reported wave heights to 30 ft a couple of hours ago. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern semicircle to 60W. A trailing rainband extends SW producing scattered moderate convection and tstms across the central Bahamas and adjacent waters and portions of the NW Caribbean. The center of the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday. Alex is forecast to begin to weaken overnight, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low by late Monday ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of 13N and moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N and between 18W and 24W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 36W, south of 12N and moving westward at 25 knots. A few showers are present near the trough axis south of 07N. A tropical wave is analyzed along 59W, south of 13N and across Guyana, and moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed over NE South America and offshore waters. A tropical wave is analyzed along 79W, south of 13N into the eastern Pacific and western Colombia, and moving westward at 10 knots. Strong showers and thunderstorms are affecting the Caribbean coast of Colombia and along its Pacific coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N23W to 04N34W and then resumes from 05N37W to 02N50W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite imagery within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 37W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the central Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas result in moderate to fresh SE winds over the western portion of the basin, especially W of 95W. Seas in this area are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set up across the western Gulf. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low-level convergence associated with a long rainband from Tropical Storm Alex supports scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of the Cayman Islands, affecting portions of central Cuba. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted near the coast of Panama. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central and SE Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore northern Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas is the described waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present remainder of the eastern Caribbean with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to locally moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are observed elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a ridge N of the area will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin through mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Alex. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Alex, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system positioned near 32N34W, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted on satellite-derived wind data south of a line from 31N23W to the Leeward Islands, covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic. The strongest winds are found offshore western Africa, especially near and north of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 25W. Seas over the region described are 6-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Topical Storm Alex W of Bermuda near 32.5N 69.0W 988 MB at 0300 UTC moving ENE or 060 DEG at 24 KT. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Alex will continue to race ENE and remain N of the area. Strong to Tropical Storm force SW winds and high seas will continue to affect the NE zones through Mon then gradually diminish Mon night. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough may linger across the N waters through Wed night or Thu. $$ Delgado