000 AXNT20 KNHC 052351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 05/2100 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Alex is located near 31.5N 71.5W, or about 345 nm W of Bermuda. Alex is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, at 24 knots. The minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. 12 ft seas extend up to 150 nm in the eastern semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is from 32N to 37N between 63W and 72W. A trailing rainband extends SSW producing scattered moderate convection and tstms across the central Bahamas and adjacent waters and portions of the NW Caribbean. The center of the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low by Tuesday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 19W from the equator to 13N, moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 13W and 24W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from the equator to 11N, moving westward at 25 knots. The wave is being covered by the Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering convection at the moment. A tropical wave is analyzed along 57W from the equator to 12N, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 48W and 62W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 77W from the 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10 knots. This wave is supporting isolated showers in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 15N17W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N30W then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N36W to 01N50W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves section discussed above. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure with a relaxed gradient is leading to favorable conditions across the Gulf. Mainly clear skies, light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the basin. A small area of isolated thunderstorms is observed off the coast of Louisiana and in the Yucatan channel. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set up across the western Gulf. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from 22N83W to 16N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed between 90 and 210 nm east of this feature. Winds are light to gentle behind the trough with 1-3 ft seas. Southerly winds are moderate to fresh ahead of the trough, with 3-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the SW Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in the central and eastern basin with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E Atlantic W-SW to the Bahamas and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin through mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Alex. Tropical storm Alex dominates the western Atlantic. Outside of this influence, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N33W is the main feature in the eastern and central basin. A ridge extends from this feature towards 25N50W. The gradient between this feature, and lower pressure over Africa and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE winds south of the ridge. Recent scatterometer data found locally strong NE winds along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas south of the ridge are 7-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Alex near 30.4N 74.0W 993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Alex will move to 31.7N 70.8W this evening, N of the area near 33.1N 66.4W Mon morning, 34.2N 61.7W Mon evening, become extratropical and move to 34.6N 57.4W Tue morning, 34.9N 53.4W Tue evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 35.0N 50.3W Wed morning. Alex will change little in intensity as it moves to near 35.5N 47.0W early Thu. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex through early Tue then weaken through Wed night. $$ Ramos