000 AXNT20 KNHC 050009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is located over the south Florida offshore waters near 27.8N 79.8W at 5 PM EDT, or about 35 nm NE of Fort Pierce, Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 045 degrees, at 16 knots with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Fresh to strong winds are observed from northern Cuba to 30N and W of 74W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the aforementioned region and extends to central Cuba where a maximum of 10 inches of rain has been reported within the last 24 hours. The disturbance is expected to move away from the east coast of Florida this evening, move over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, from the equator to 11N, moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 36W and 43W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 71W, from 01N to 12N, moving westward at 15 knots. This wave is generating heavy showers in portions of Colombia and Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W to 06N25W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to 00N36W and west of the tropical wave from 01S41W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 13N E of 19W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N between 20W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 27.8N 79.8W 1001 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NE at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Low pressure and a weak pressure gradient dominate the Gulf water. Over the far eastern gulf or E of 87W moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail associated with Potential TC-One while light to gentle variable winds dominate elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft E of 90W and to 3 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, weak high pressure is building across the Gulf waters in the wake of the aforementioned disturbance, and will dominate the basin through mid week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up over the western Gulf Sun night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which is generating heavy showers over portions of Cuba and the NW Caribbean. Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 27.8N 79.8W 1001 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NE at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Winds are gentle to moderate through most of the NW Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are likely offshore NW Venezuela with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-5 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, strong S to SW winds and wave heights of 8 to 10 ft will continue to diminish across the NW Caribbean and south of Cuba through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean E of 78W Sun through late Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 27.8N 79.8W 1001 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NE at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. One will move to 29.2N 77.6W Sun morning, 31.1N 74.0W Sun afternoon, and N of the area near 32.8N 69.8W Mon morning. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move away from the east coast of Florida this evening, move over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue then weaken through Wed. Otherwise, a subtropical ridge dominates the remainder central and E Atlantic supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds off the coast of NW Africa. $$ Ramos