000 AXNT20 KNHC 041100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is near located near 25.6N 83.1W at 5 AM EDT, or about 56 nm/100 km N of the Dry Tortugas, and about 87 nm/165 km SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 045 degrees, at 16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots, and are occurring exclusively across the southeast semicircle. Strong upper level west-southwesterly wind shear has caused convection near this center to deteriorate overnight. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection currently extends mostly in a 90-120 nm wide linear band from southwest Florida along 27N across western Cuba then SSW to the interior Gulf of Honduras. Other scatters clusters of moderate to strong convection are moving NNE across the coastal waters of southeast Florida and the northern Bahamas from 23.5N to 28N to the W of 74.5W. Overnight satellite derived scatterometer wind data showed an elongated trough of low pressure across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, extending NNE to SSW, while the strongest winds are well removed to the east and southeast of the trough and assumed surface center. The Potential Tropical Cyclone will continue to move northeastward today and across southern Florida, and then reorganize along the E coast of Florida or the nearby Atlc waters tonight, and become a Tropical Storm. Heavy rainfall will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida today. The system is expected to reach near 28.6N 78.6W tonight as a Tropical Storm, then begin to interact with an upper level trough and expand its wind field, as it accelerates off to the NE, moving north of 31N Sun night. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 34W, from 11N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03.5N to 08N between 29W and 39W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 68W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered convection is occurring solely across South America south of 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N31W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 14W and 21W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 05.5N between 07W and 13W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. S to SW Winds to Tropical Storm strength extend across the Straits of Florida east of 81.5W across western Cuba and into the Caribbean coastal waters of Cuba north of the Isle of Youth. Elsewhere cyclonic winds of 20-30 kt are found across much of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico east of 86W and south of 28N. Seas across this area are to 10 ft. A large middle level to upper level trough, that stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the far southwestern Gulf is keeping the remainder of the basin dry, and providing strong westerly wind shear across Potential Tropical Cyclone. Moderate to fresh NE to E wind, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are in the central and northeastern Gulf. Light N breezes, and 2 to 4 foot seas, are in the western Gulf. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move NE and reach the SW coast of Florida shortly after sunrise, then reach near 27.1N 80.9W Sat afternoon, then continue NE and exit into the Atlc waters Sat evening, reach Tropical Storm strength and accelerate NE through Mon. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Strong southerly winds, and local areas reaching minimal tropical storm force, are occurring in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea from 21N northward, mostly across the coastal waters of western Cuba north of the Isle of Youth. Seas are reaching as high as 10 feet in this area. Fresh SE to S winds are elsewhere from 16N northward between Jamaica and 83W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is: light breezes and slight seas in the far SW Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall has been moving across much of western portions of central Cuba, adding to large accumulations in much of western and central Cuba and the Isle of Youth during the past 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will continue NE and move across southern Florida, reaching near 27.1N 80.9W this afternoon then exit into the Atlc and reach near 28.6N 78.6Ww Sat night as a Tropical Storm, then accelerate NE and more north of 31N Sun night. Strong SW winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and south of west and central Cuba through early Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean E of 78W Sun through late Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center is near 34N23W to 26N50W to near 23.5N66W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward. To the NW of the ridge, a 1010 mb low pressure center is near 31N65W, moving ESE. An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N63W, to 25N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is supported by the upper trough, and covers the area from 23N to 29N between 55W and 62W. Mostly gentle to moderate winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are from 20N northward. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds, and 5 to 8 foot seas, are from 20N southward. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will continue NE and move across southern Florida, reaching near 27.1N 80.9W this afternoon, then continue NE and become a Tropical Storm near 25.8N 82.0W this evening, then accelerate NE and reach 30.7N 74.6W Sun afternoon, then move N of 31N Sun night. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue then weaken through Wed. $$ Stripling