000 AXNT20 KNHC 031755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One: The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is located near 22.6N 86.4W at 1800 UTC, or 130 nm NNE of Cozumel, Mexico and 340 nm SW of Ft. Myers, Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 035 degrees, at 4 kt and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed starting later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds to 35 kt are found within 60 nm across the eastern semicircle and extend across the northern entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and 6-11 ft seas, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, south of western Cuba. Scattered to numerous strong convection is across the NW Caribbean from 20N northward across the Yucatan Channel to 24N, and then northeastward across the west half of Cuba and the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends further east to the W Bahamas. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday. This system is expected to produce heavy rains in the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains began to impact South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning, and will continue through Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the nearby ITCZ, is from 05N to 07N between 28W and 31W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over far NE Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along W, from 12N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the SW Caribbean Sea near the northern terminus of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra-Leone near 08N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 05N28W then resumes from 06N33W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 02N to 06N east of 17W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the western segment of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently located just offshore the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. Near Potential Tropical Cyclone One, fresh to strong SE-E winds, potentially 30 to 35 kt at times, are impacting the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida, extending northward to 26N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the southeast Gulf, except 8 to 11 ft within 90 nm east of the low pressure center. Elsewhere gentle to moderate cyclonic flow continues across the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Seas in the Gulf of Mexico are lowest in northern and western portions of the basin away from Potential Tropical Cyclone One. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to 23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and 32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of One. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. The latest surface observations continue to indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the NE Caribbean, driven by the nearby Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Specifically, NOAA Buoy 42056 reported a peak sustained wind of 27 kt with gusts to 33 kt earlier this morning. The latest report from the buoy at 1610 UTC was 20 kt sustained winds with gusts to 23 kt. Heavy rainfall continues over the NE Caribbean and W Cuba; Punta del Este, Isle of Youth reported 6.1 inches of precipitation over the last 24 hrs, with additional stations reporting near 5 inches. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate trade flow persists with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to 23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and 32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. Strong winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and S of west and central Cuba through early Sat afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1025 mb high pressure centered southwest of the Azores. Anticyclonic flow is gentle across the discussion area north of 19N, increasing to moderate to locally fresh south of 19N. Strong NE winds have recently been reported in Cabo Verde, the Canary Islands, and far eastern Atlantic waters. Scattered showers are from 23N to 31N between 60W and 68W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin, increasing to 6-7 ft in strongest winds near the ITCZ and east of Cabo Verde. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to 23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and 32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue. $$ Mahoney