000 AXNT20 KNHC 031211 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022 Updated to include information from the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is located near 22.4N 86.8W at 1200 UTC, or about 110 nm N of Cozumel in Mexico, and about 365 nm SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 040 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Winds to 35 kt are found within 50 nm across the eastern semicircle and extend across the northern entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and 6-10 ft seas, are in the NW the Caribbean Sea, south of western Cuba. Scattered to numerous strong convection is across the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras northward across the Yucatan Channel to 23N, and then northeastward across the west half of Cuba and adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. Convection across the Yucatan Peninsula has ended for the time being as well as the waters to the north. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from central Cuba across the central Bahama. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating this system overnight found reliable evidence of winds to 35 kt at the surface. However, they could not find westerly winds at the surface and a close low center. The system therefore remains a Potential Tropical Cyclone, but is expected to become better organized by this afternoon and reach Tropical Storm status as it moves northeastward towards southwest Florida. The current forecast moves this system inland across southwestern Florida late tonight. This system is expected to produce heavy rains in the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys beginning on Friday, and continuing through Saturday. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related more to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, south of 12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 12N southward, moving westward 5 to 105 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 08N13W to 05.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N18W, to 03.5N23W to 05N27W, then resumes from 05N31W to 03N49W. Precipitation: Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong is from 03N to 06N between 04W and 20W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 30W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is just offshore of the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong SE-E winds, and likely a narrow band of 30 to 35 kt winds associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone One, are impacting the Yucatan Channel, extending northward to 24N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere across the southeast Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the southeast Gulf, except 8 to 11 ft within 90 nm east of the low pressure center. Elsewhere gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are across the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Potential Tropical Cyclone One One will move NE today and reach near 23.5N 85.5W as a Tropical Storm this afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.2W tonight, then move NE across S central Florida Sat morning, reaching near 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then continue NE and across the western Atlc Sat night through Sun and exit north of 31N Sun night. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of One. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and seas of 6 to 10 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, related to the Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and extend to the southwest coast of Cuba. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin east of 78W, where seas are 3 to 5 feet. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move NE today and reach near 23.5N 85.5W as a Tropical Storm this afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.2W tonight, then move NE across S central Florida Sat morning, reaching near 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then continue NE and across the western Atlc Sat night through Sun and exit north of 31N Sun night. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of One. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough has become ill defined along 28N/29N between 70W and 76W, while satellite imagery suggests a low center in the low levels of the atmosphere near 31N70W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 31N30W, WSW across the basin to near 24N73W. Broad surface anticyclonic light to gentle wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward, and E of 45W. South of the ridge, fresh NE trade winds are occurring from 06N to a line from 20N35W to 14N55W. Seas in the trade wind zone are 6 to 9 ft in a mixed of N and NE swell. Potential Tropical Cyclone One offshore of the NE coast of Yucatan Peninsula will move NE today and reach near 23.5N 85.5W as a Tropical Storm this afternoon, move NE across S central Florida Sat morning, reaching near to 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then accelerate NE across the W Atlc and reach near 31.0N 74.0W Sun afternoon. One will strengthen slightly across the Atlc and exit the region Sun night. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue. $$ Stripling/Mahoney