000 AXNT20 KNHC 030627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is near 21.8N 87.4W, or about 84 nm/155 km NNW of Cozumel in Mexico, and about 416 nm /770 km SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure center is moving northward, or 360 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and 6-10 foot seas, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, with the Potential Tropical Cyclone. Precipitation: numerous strong is in central Cuba and the surrounding waters, in the Yucatan Channel and the surrounding areas, and in the Gulf of Honduras and the surrounding areas. Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N to 26N between 76W and 90W, including in the Atlantic Ocean, and in the NW Caribbean Sea, and nearby land areas. The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains in the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys beginning on Friday, and continuing through Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 12-24 hours, as the system moves NE. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related more to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 14N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, in the waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland, from 07N southward, between 63W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 12N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 04N23W 06N30W 03N40W 02N47W 03N49W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 05N to 07N between 33W and 42W, and from 05N to 08N between 47W and 51W. widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 300 nm to the south of 09N13W 08N30W 09N50W 13N60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong SE-E winds, associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone One, are impacting the Yucatan Channel, extending northward to 25N. The wind speeds are moderate in the majority of the Gulf of Mexico; gentle conditions are in the western Gulf. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet in the SE Gulf of Mexico, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near 22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, near 23.9N 85.7W Fri evening as a Tropical Storm, then continue NE and across S central Florida Sat, reaching near to 27.6N 80.6W Sat evening, then continue NE across the western Atlc through Sun. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of One. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 10 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, related to the Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The conditions are comparatively more favorable in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds, and wave heights that are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet. Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near 22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, near 23.9N 85.7W Fri evening as a Tropical Storm, then continue NE and across S central Florida Sat, reaching near to 27.6N 80.6W Sat evening, then continue NE across the western Atlc where it will intensify modestly, then move N of 31N Sun evening. Strong winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean through midday Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 28N/29N between 70W and 76W. Earlier upper level cyclonic wind flow has become comparatively more westerly with time, in the area that is from Hispaniola and Cuba northward from 60W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center remains near 31N70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N northward from 50W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 32N30W, to 27N43W 24N60W 23N80W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward, away from the 28N/29N surface trough that is between 70W and 76W. The winds are gentle to locally moderate in the western Atlantic Ocean, with slight seas. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N30W. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1024 mb high pressure center and lower pressure that is near the monsoon trough/ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and south of 20N in the central Atlantic Ocean, with wave heights ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet. Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near 22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, than continue NE and across S central Florida Sat, reaching near 27.6N 80.6W as a Tropical Storm Sat evening, then accelerate NE across the W Atlc and reach near 31.6N 74.1W Sun evening. One will intensify modestly across the Atlc, and exit the region Mon afternoon. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue. $$ mt