000 AXNT20 KNHC 021154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1004 mb low pressure is centered just north of Cozumel, Mexico near 21N87W at 0900 UTC, moving slowly northeastward. This low is embedded within a broad area of low pressure that is located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows disorganized clusters of scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within this area of broad low pressure over the waters north of 15N and west of 79W. Strong east to southeast winds were highlighted by overnight ASCAT data passes over this part of the Caribbean. Despite strong upper- level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced on the surface map at 0600 UTC along 26W from 02N to 13N based on diagnostic guidance from Albany-SUNY and on the CIMSS MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) animation imagery. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate small clusters of convection are within 60 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. Larger clusters of moderate convection are over South America within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 12N. It is moving westward around 13 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 08N to 10N. This convection is being aided by the eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to 04N30W, 07N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-45W. Scattered mdoerate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about a 1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and that is associated to a broad area of low pressure. This system has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation. A relatively weak surface ridge extends from a 1014 mb high center over the western Florida panhandle to the southwestern Gulf near 24N96W. Light to gentle east winds along with wave heights of 2-4 ft are in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient that is between the ridge and the broad area of low pressure that is near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh east winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche and vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. This activity is related to the aforementioned broad low pressure area. As for the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development is forecast, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Expect for shower and thunderstorm activity to increase in the southeastern and south-central Gulf sections through Sat. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds over the western and central Gulf waters through Fri. Winds in the central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche become fresh northeast winds today through Fri night in response to the pressure gradient associated to the expected tropical cyclone. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure west of the area will strengthen some starting Sun allowing for fresh return flow to set up over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about a 1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and that is associated to a broad area of low pressure. This system has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation. The surface pressure gradient between the Bermuda high pressure, and the Special Features 1004 mb low pressure center, is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in the northwest and west central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds along with wave heights of 3-5 ft are in the southwestern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft are in the central sections of the sea. Gentle easterly trade winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are in the eastern part of the sea. Isolated showers are over the far southeastern Caribbean ahead of the tropical wave that is approaching the Windward Islands. As for the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development is forecast, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Very active weather and strong east to southeast winds will continue over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic surface trough is analyzed from near 28N73W to the central Bahamas and to just north of central Cuba near 23N78W. A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery to the northwest of this trough near 29N80W. It is moving south. These features are sustaining scattered moderate convection northeast and east of the Bahamas from 26N to 29N between 65W- 69W, and from 27N to 29N between 69W-73W. An area of mostly overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of moderate rain and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted south of 25N west of 68W to the Straits of Florida and over Cuba as well. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 64W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds along with 2-4 ft wave heights are over the waters west of 55W. Expect gentle to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to fresh trade winds more to the south, with 5-7 ft wave heights east of 55W. As for the forecast, the mid to upper-level low near 29N80W will continue moving south today while weakening. The scattered moderate convection that is northeast and east of the Bahamas is expected to longer through the day and possibly into the evening. A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development. It is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it tracks northeastward. This approaching system will likely impact much of the area beginning late Fri night and possibly into Mon. Weak high pressure over the area will shift to the eastern part of the area by early next week in response to the low pressure system. $$ Aguirre