000 AXNT20 KNHC 010554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 01 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: The monsoon trough extends from central Guatemala, through SE Nicaragua, to coastal Colombia near 11N74W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 145 nm on the northeastern side of the monsoon trough, from north central Nicaragua to Belize and Guatemala, and in the SE Yucatan Peninsula and its coastal waters. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 80W westward. A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha, that are interacting with an upper level Gulf of Mexico trough. It is likely for this system to become a tropical depression by Friday, as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall, and the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides, are likely in parts of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days. It is easy for the precipitation to spread to western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Anyone with interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, in western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://hurricanes.gov/, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 800 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 520 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is in the waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to 06N22W, 03N31W, 04N33W, and 03N39W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W and 38W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 30W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 40W eastward. A surface trough is along 42W/43W from 03N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge is along 30N in Florida, to 29N/30N from Florida to east Texas. Fresh SE winds are within 270 nm to the north of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 21N to 29N. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, has pushed its way into the Gulf of Mexico, covering the area that is from 27N southward. This cloudiness and precipitation has moved into the area from the Bahamas and the Atlantic Ocean, the NW Caribbean Sea, and the Yucatan Peninsula. A large and complex area of low pressure has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday, as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain and increased winds and seas may result over portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into the weekend. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge that extends from western Atlantic across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh southeast winds over the western and central basin through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the developing low pressure, clouds, and precipitation that are accompanying the weather feature. The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure in Colombia, is supporting moderate to fresh winds in much of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for the wind speeds that are locally strong in the far western Caribbean Sea, due to a locally tighter pressure gradient. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. A large and complex area of low pressure has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain and increased winds and seas are possible late this week in association with this system. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 79W from 24N to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Hispaniola and Cuba northward from 70W westward. Fresh easterly winds are from 27N to 29N within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 28N53W 23N54W 17N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 70W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the surface trough westward. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N12W, to the Canary Islands, to 27N18W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 21N northward from 30W eastward. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N44W. A second 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N64W. Light to gentle winds are near the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 20N northward. Moderate to locally fresh winds are from 20N southward. The wave heights range from: 2 feet to 3 feet from 26N northward from 60W westward; from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 20N northward and from 35W westward; and from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward. A trough will shift northeast from the Bahamas during the next few days. It will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to most of the western part of the area through Fri. A tropical depression is likely to form in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Fri. It is expected to track northeastward possibly crossing Florida or Cuba at the end of the week and over the weekend, then move into the region. This could bring heavy rain and increased winds and seas to portions of the area this weekend and into early next week. There remains high uncertainty with this potential tropical system. $$ MT/JA