000 AXNT20 KNHC 312202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed June 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 45W and 55W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 04N34W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 19W and 27W, and from 02N to 06N between 31W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridge prevails across the northern Gulf. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 22N92W to 19N92W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong winds east of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft over the western Gulf and 3-5 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Heavy rain and increased winds and seas may result over portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into the weekend. Otherwise, expect moderate to fresh SE winds to prevail over the western and central basin through the period, with mainly gentle winds to the east. CARIBBEAN SEA... An abundance of tropical moisture, combined with a developing broad cyclonic gyre over Central America and southern Mexico is supporting scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection over the western Caribbean. High pressure is centered north of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough and lower pressure over South America is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the Caribbean waters. Winds are locally strong over the far western Caribbean due to a locally tighter pressure gradient. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Heavy rain and increased winds and seas are possible late this week in association with this system. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 29N65W, with a second high pressure center near 28N44W. Light to gentle winds are near the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 20N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 35W. South of 20N, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. A dissipating cold front enters the area near 31N12W and extends SW to near 24N25W. This front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, producing seas of 7-11 ft west of the front to 35W. For the forecast W of 65W, a trough will move NE from the Bahamas over the next few days, bringing showers and thunderstorms to western portions of the area into late week. A tropical depression is likely to form in the far NW Caribbean Sea or SE Gulf of Mexico later this week and cross Florida or Cuba at the end of the week and over the weekend, then move NE into the region. This could bring heavy rain and increased winds and seas to portions of the area this weekend into early next week. $$ AL