000 AXNT20 KNHC 311608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 02N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 36W and 54W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 67W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15kt. No significant convection is observed over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N34W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W and 19W. Similar convection is also noted from 02N to 06N between 16W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across the majority of the basin with gentle winds in the NE Gulf. The remnants of Agatha over southern Mexico are causing scattered moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche. An unstable moist atmosphere is causing scattered weak convection over the SE Gulf including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. Buoys are reporting 5-7 ft seas in the central and NW Gulf and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and central Gulf and mainly gentle SE winds elsewhere through the the week. Fresh to strong southeast winds offshore Veracruz will diminish by this afternoon. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and far northwestern Caribbean Sea mid-week. This system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for some areas of the SE Gulf going into the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An abundance of tropical moisture, combined with a surface trough in the NW Gulf is causing scattered moderate convection from 16N to 22N between 80W and 88W. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N to 12N between 76W and 82W. High pressure north of the area, combined with lower pressure over South and Central America, is generating moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central basin and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean into Wed night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean through late week. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and far northwestern Caribbean Sea mid-week. This system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase for the northwestern Caribbean late this week and into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture combined with a surface trough in the western Atlantic is supporting scattered weak convection from 24N to 31N between 68W and 79W. Weak high pressure in the western and central subtropical Atlantic is causing mainly gentle to locally moderate easterly winds, with an area of moderate to fresh easterlies north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 24N32W. Behind the front and north of 26N, winds are moderate to fresh from the west with 8-12 ft seas. Winds and seas are mainly moderate or less across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. An upper level trough over the SE U.S. and surface trough over the Bahamas will keep showers and thunderstorms over the western part of the area through the week. Low pressure expected to develop in the vicinity of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and far northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week is forecast to track northeastward as a possible tropical cyclone, potentially affecting the western forecast waters late in the week and into the weekend. There is uncertainty with its eventual track and strength. Winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola through tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through Thu. $$ Flynn