000
AXNT20 KNHC 301600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 02N to 14N,
moving west at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed a 
surface wind shift across southern half of the feature. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 34W and 
40W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Caribbean with its axis along 
62W from 02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 13 kt. While
significant convection is limited, isolated showers are possible 
near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 08N18W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N35W. It resumes west
of the tropical wave from 05N40W to 00N50W. Aside from convection
associated with the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 17W and 32W. 
Another area of scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N
to 07N between 41W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Abundant tropical moisture across the Gulf is causing broken to 
overcast skies and isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
basin. Buoys are reporting fresh southerly winds in the NW Gulf
with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SE in the 
central basin with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, winds are
gentle to moderate with 2-3 ft seas.
 
For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western 
Atlantic to across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to 
fresh SE winds over the western Gulf and mainly gentle SE winds 
elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase to locally strong
offshore Veracruz tonight. A large area of low pressure may 
impact the southern Gulf mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over Colombia is generating fresh to strong trade winds across 
the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere.
Recent altimeter data found 8-10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia
with 6-8 ft seas through the remainder of the central portion of
the basin. 4-6 ft seas are observed elsewhere. Abundant tropical 
moisture is causing overcast skies and scattered moderate 
convection across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will 
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off the coasts of 
Colombia and Venezuela into mid-week. Moderate to fresh trades 
will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean through
mid-week. A large area of low pressure may form in the far NW 
Caribbean late this week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low over the SE US is supporting a surface trough
NE of the Bahamas. This feature, combined with abundant tropical 
moisture is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N-31N
between 71W and 80W. North of 23N in the Western Atlantic, winds
are gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh easterlies
south of 23N. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 26N and 4-6 ft south of
26N. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N32W to
31N40W. Winds are moderate to fresh behind the front with an area
of strong SW winds ahead of the eastern portion of the boundary.
Seas are 8-10 ft near and behind he front. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate to gentle with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change 
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak
trough will from early this week over the Bahamas and bring a 
broad area of showers and thunderstorms to the western portions of
the area into mid-week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north 
of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas into Tue. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region into
mid-week. 

$$
Flynn