692 AXNT20 KNHC 291108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W/31W from 02N to 15W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Small clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted near the southern part of the wave from 01N to 04N between 29W-31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave at the present time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W. It extends from there to 08N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N16W to 06N22W and to 05N29W. In addition to the tropical wave along 30W/31W, a surface trough analyzed from 05N35W to 01S36W also interrupts the ITCZ. The ITCZ then resumes from 01N37W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W-26W, and within 180 nm east of the surface trough from 03N to 05N. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 02S and also between 29W-32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is analyzed from across northern Florida reaching the coast near Destin and westward to just southwest of Biloxi, Mississippi. It continues inland southern Louisiana as a warm front. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. Satellite imagery shows plenty of deep moisture streaming over the southern part of the basin, south of about 21N. Within this area of deep moisture, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a weak 1015 mb high center that is located over the eastern Gulf. The high pressure is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate winds found in the offshore waters of northern Yucatan and the western Gulf coast. These winds are of the moderate to fresh type speeds. Latest altimeter data passes along with buoy reports indicate seas of 2-4 ft over the basin, except for slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft in the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche and over the waters of southwestern Louisiana. Seas of 4-6 ft are over the west- central Gulf west of 94W. For the forecast, the weak stationary front will dissipate today. Otherwise, the weak high pressure will continue across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across the eastern Gulf through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night across the NW waters and continue through early next week. Low pressure may develop over the southwestern Gulf toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea is providing enough instability in combination with a very moist low- level easterly flow to produce scattered scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southeastern Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are over the northwestern Caribbean from 15N to 20N between 80W-85W. Similar activity is just inland the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is occurring within deep moisture that is spreading eastward from eastern pacific to across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean Sea. Dry air is generally present over the rest of the basin, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. Overnight ASCAT data captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Gentle to locally fresh trades are found elsewhere in the basin, along with seas of 3-6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 15N between 68W-72W and lower seas of 2-4 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough stretches from along the New England coast southwestward to just offshore the northeast Florida coast where a small upper low appears to be forming along the trough. At the surface, a stationary front is just inland the southeastern U.S. coast, while a surface trough is offshore Florida along 79W/80W from 26N to 31N. Upper-level divergence east of the upper trough along with the surface trough is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms to exist from the northwest Bahamas to 31N between 75W and the surface trough. Similar activity extends well northeast of the area. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the Azores. The parent high center of 1027 mb is analyzed north of the area at 34N47W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the Caribbean is sustaining fresh to locally strong east-southeast winds off northern Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas, mainly south of 23N. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 55W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N23W to 25N30W and to 23N38W. Overnight partial ASCAT data indicated fresh northeast to east winds west of this front to near 45W. Northerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft behind the front as highlighted in a recent altimeter data pass. Dry air along with rather stable conditions are present over the remainder of the area, inhibiting deep convection from developing. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are also noted south of about 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft continue. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through early next week. $$ Aguirre