000 AXNT20 KNHC 281759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 22W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found near this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends from near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border to 04N24W, then from 04N26W across EQ33W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 11W and 22W, and from 01N to 06N between 28W and 35W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Panama and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area to near 29N85W, then continues as a stationary front to near Galveston, Texas. Scattered showers are found up to 40 nm from either side of this boundary. A surface trough run northeastward from the E central Gulf across central Florida to beyond 31N79W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over central Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the central Gulf is dominating the E Gulf with gentle to moderate SSW to W winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate southeasterly return flow and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail across the W Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the northern waters will dissipate Sun. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the W Gulf and light to gentle winds across the E Gulf through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night across the NW waters and continue through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers over the E basin, including the Lesser Antilles. Convergent southeasterly winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Nicaragua; and over southern Cuba and nearby waters. Fresh to locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen over the south central basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas exist over the central and north central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with seas to 8 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough runs northeastward from near Cape Canaveral, Florida to beyond 31N at 79W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across the Bahamas and offshore from Florida. A cold front reaches southwestward from south of the Azores across 31N29W to 26N34W, together with two surface troughs to the west near 26N38W and 28N57W; scattered showers are evident north of 23N between 27W and 59W. Farther east, a low to mid- level trough near 29N17W is triggering scattered showers near the Canary Islands. The Atlantic ridge is dominating the central basin with gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of the Equator between 30W and the Less Antilles. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north of 26N between 34W and 56W, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas off the northern florida/Georgia coast. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist off the NE Florida coast today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the region through early next week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early next week. $$ Chan